Solar container market in the second half of the year

How will the solar market perform this year?

For utility-scale, more than half of the estimated capacity for the year is currently under construction. The pipeline of projects in late-stage development remains healthy and is expected to materialize this year. The residential solar market will experience some recovery this year, with 9% growth.

How will the residential solar market grow over the next decade?

The residential solar market will continue to grow steadily, driven by retail rate inflation, resiliency concerns, product innovation, and third-party ownership momentum with a focus on ITC adder qualification. In our Base case forecast, the segment will more than triple over the next decade, adding more than 96 GWdc by 2035. 3.2. Commercial PV

How will the community solar market change in 2025?

The community solar market will experience a more significant contraction, with capacity declining by 22% year-over-year in 2025, following a record year in 2024. Lastly, utility-scale installations will drop by 2% in 2025 after two solid years of growth.

How did California's commercial solar market perform in 2024?

2024 was another record-breaking year for the commercial solar segment, with 2.1 GWdc of new capacity installed, an 8% increase from 2023. Last year, California represented 34% of the total national installed capacity, with 11% year-over-year growth, primarily due to NEM 2.0 installations coming online.

How will New York's solar market perform in 2025?

New volumes in New York also declined slightly, even as the state continues to represent 52% of the total market. We expect the national community solar market to contract 22% this year, following a particularly strong 2024 for the segment. However, installed capacity in 2025 will still exceed 2023 volumes, reaching approximately 1.5 GWdc.

How much will the US solar industry contract in 2025?

The US solar industry is projected to contract by 2% annually between 2025 and 2030 in our Base case but still add nearly 43 GWdc on average each year. In the near term, solar installations will decline at an average rate of 7% from 2025 to 2027.